Assessing COVID-19 impact on the Sustainable Development Goals
UNDP’s flagship study, conducted with the Pardee Center for International Futures at the University of Denver, assesses the impact of three different COVID-19 scenarios on the SDGs, capturing the multidimensional effects of the pandemic over the next decades. The findings show that while COVID-19 can lead to severe long-term impacts, a set of ambitious but feasible integrated ‘SDG investments’ can help the world exceed the development trajectory we were on before the pandemic, even when taking COVID impact into account.
The analysis also includes a special focus on countries with low and medium levels of human development as per the 2020 Human Development Index (HDI), in support of the 2030 Agenda’s pledge to Leave No One Behind.
By using scenario modeling, the study shows how governments can make choices today that have the greatest potential to boost progress in the future, within planetary boundaries. This type of analysis can empower governments to turn COVID-19 from a short-term crisis into an opportunity for transformation towards sustainable development in the long-term.
WHAT UNDERPINS THIS ANALYSIS?
- The ‘Baseline COVID’ scenario represents significant pandemic-period increases in poverty and hunger and substantial longer-term negative consequences;
- The ‘High Damage’ scenario describes a future where the economic damage is worse and recovery is delayed;
- The ‘SDG Push’ scenario outlines the impact of targeted policy interventions that can accelerate progress towards a more fair, resilient and green future.