Unlocking growth and development through ambitious NDCs
Published on 25 September 2025
Overview
Greater climate ambition is essential for securing prosperity, yet action is stalling, with only 40 countries submitting their updated Nationally Determined Contributions (NDCs) by September 2025. Current NDCs lack the scale, credibility, and investment-readiness needed to deliver impact, making the 2025 update a critical opportunity to strengthen frameworks, mobilize finance, and drive effective action. New OECD-UNDP analysis shows that higher climate ambition is achievable and economically smart, boosting global GDP by 0.1% to 0.21% in the near term, while avoiding losses of up to 3% by 2050 and 13% by 2100 with enhanced NDCs. Stronger climate policies, supported by reforms in food security, basic services, and governance, could lift 175 million people out of extreme poverty by 2050, with the greatest gains in the most deprived regions.
Report at a Glance
The joint UNDP-OECD report Investing in Climate for Growth and Development: The Case for Enhanced NDCs, supported by the German Federal Foreign Office, aims to help countries design and implement NDCs that attract investment and prioritize people-centered climate action. It compares emission pathways and helps countries identify how climate policies can align with national development priorities — highlighting opportunities for synergies, co-benefits, and stronger policy coherence.
The analysis compares two distinct pathways to assess the short-to-medium-term (2030, 2035) and long-term (2050) impacts of integrated investment strategies, highlighting their advantages over siloed approaches and their potential to inform the next round of NDCs. Recognizing the critical role of energy systems in climate mitigation and adaptation, the analysis contrasts the impact of climate action along with the added benefits of integrating climate and SDG investments, highlighting the greater gains achievable through a combined approach.
Through a modelling exercise, the report investigates socioeconomic and environmental outcomes for several future scenarios:
Current Policies (Business-as-Usual)
Reflects current climate policies and commitments, showing the trajectory if no further action is taken beyond existing legislation.
Enhanced NDCs
In this scenario, technology advancements over the next 15–30 years drive developed countries to prioritize energy efficiency, reducing overall energy demand and creating space for developing countries to meet rising energy needs through renewable energy sources. By the end of the century, per capita energy demand converges across high- and low-income countries.
SDG Push 3.0
The SDG Push 3.0 scenario builds on the Enhanced NDCs by combining ambitious climate action with targeted investments in governance, social protection, green economy, and digital innovation. It envisions equitable, low-carbon pathways aligned with the 1.5°C goal, ensuring fair distribution of climate benefits and burdens across regions.
What the evidence shows
By integrating an ambitious yet feasible set of climate and development investments, the SDG Push 3.0 scenario outperforms climate action alone, delivering stronger, more inclusive outcomes — especially in poverty alleviation (SDG 1), food security (SDG 2), health and well-being (SDG 3), and sanitation (SDG 6).
Country Benefits
The gains under the SDG Push 3.0 are more pronounced in the most deprived countries - of the 68 low and medium-HDI countries, 27—including Liberia, Gambia, and Burkina Faso—could eradicate extreme poverty by 2050, six years earlier than in the Enhanced NDC Scenario.
On average, low-HDI countries eradicate extreme poverty seven years sooner under the SDG Push 3.0 scenario, with 1 in 3 making major progress by 2050.
Where SDG Push 3.0 Accelerates—or Fails to Accelerate—Poverty Elimination in Low-HDI Countries
Country deep dive
Explore the Data
The benefits of SDG Push 3.0 are echoed across additional human development indicators, including nutrition and education. You can explore more of these indicators and scenarios for your region across the years.